EPL Relegation Odds 2024/25
Ipswich to Finish Bottom + 275
Prior to the start of last season, it looked pretty straightforward to identify the three clubs that were going to get relegated. Those clubs were the three that had just been promoted from the Championship.
It soon became clear that was going to be the case. Sheffield United were embarrassing, conceding a record 104 goals on their way to limping to just 16 points and a rock-bottom finish.
Burnley feared little better having cruised to the second-tier title in the previous campaign, a refusal to change their style saw them end on 24 points. However, it also saw manager Vincent Kompany jump ship after bizarrely being offered the vacant position at German giants Bayern Munich.
Luton put up more resistance before officially joining the other two on the last day of the season. Let us not forget, though, that Nottingham Forest’s gap of six points would have been 10 if not for a points deduction for their closest rivals.
The traders feel there could be a definite sense of Déjà-vu come May. Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton are the market favorites, and I must agree. I cannot see any other side getting involved.
Southampton are priced as having the best hope of survival, having bounced straight back after relegation in 2022/23 when they finished bottom with 25 points. Russell Martin has an obsession for possession and could well follow the same path as Kompany with plenty of risks taken at the back. Expect a few heavy beatings but no change in style ending with relegation.
Leicester won the Championship title in May and returned to the Premier League at the first time of asking, but they have lost manager Enzo Maresca to Chelsea. His first action was to persuade the Foxes’ best player, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, to join him at Stamford Bridge, which leaves new boss Steve Cooper with a large creative hole to fill.
The former Nottingham Forest manager has the experience of what it takes to keep a side up in this league. I give Leicester the best chance of survival, but I still think they will fall short. They also have the possibility of a points deduction hanging over their heads, which, if that does happen, will make escaping the drop all but impossible.
Ipswich fans will be pinching themselves. Two seasons ago, they were preparing to open their English third-tier campaign with a home fixture against Bolton Wanderers. This Saturday, Portman Road will be packed out for Liverpool’s visit.
Momentum is a huge thing in professional sport and the Tractor Boys certainly used that last term in securing back-to-back promotions. They won seven of their first eight Championship fixtures, suffering one defeat in their opening 16 league games and never looked back.
Starting their first topflight season in 22 years with fixtures against Liverpool and then Manchester City will mean such a strong start is highly unlikely, to put it mildly. Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton all lost their opening two fixtures last season by an aggregate of 16-3 and never recovered.
Head Coach Kiaran McKenna has gained many admirers since landing in Suffolk, rumors were rife both Brighton and Chelsea were keen on him filling their managerial vacancies over the summer. Instead, he opted to sign a new contract with Town and will look to continue his ambitious and aggressive style of play.
Recruitment has been like that for Luton. They are picking up players who will enjoy showcasing their talent in the Premier League for a season but will be star performers in the likely eventuality of a return to the Championship.
Youngsters Omari Hutchinson and Liam Delap make big money permanent switches from Chelsea and Manchester City after decent loan showings in the second tier. While Jacob Greaves from Hull and Burnley’s Arijanet Muric are new additions to what will be an overworked defense.
Ipswich conceded 57 goals last season, only one less than my team, QPR, which finished 18th. Unlike last term, they will not be able to come out on the right side of shootouts when playing the elite.
At around -138, I’m not prepared to put forward Ipswich to be relegated as my selection in this market. Instead, I have gone for something with a little more juice. I wouldn’t put you off the +600 on all three promoted teams to get relegated but my official pick is for Ipswich to finish bottom.
This looks a step too far for the Tractor Boys in what looks like a case of just enjoy the ride. The price of +275 could crash if they suffer two heavy defeats in those opening fixtures and if they were to lose miracle worker McKenna, then we would likely be looking at minus money quotes.
EPL Pick: Ipswich to Finish Bottom of the 2024/25 English Premier League at +275.
