Heisman Trophy 2024:
Jayden Daniels took home the Heisman Trophy award last season. Daniels threw for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns and only four interceptions for LSU, and he also added another 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Daniels, who the Washington Commanders selected with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, was the most electric dual-threat quarterback in all of college football. That was ultimately enough for him to edge out Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., despite the fact that the Tigers were just 9-3 in the regular season.
As we start looking at the upcoming season, Daniels’ win in what was merely an above-average season for LSU can’t be taken lightly. This award is usually reserved for players that perform at high levels on the very best teams in the nation. Now, there might be some wiggle room in the voting, making it hard to rule out some of the more exciting players that won’t be playing for true College Football Playoff contenders. Players that play for teams that lose three or four games might be in play, especially with teams playing tougher schedules in the new college football landscape. But one thing that feels certain is that the player that wins this award will probably be throwing passes.
The Heisman Trophy has now gone to a quarterback in 20 of the last 24 seasons. That’s something that you have to factor in when looking to get involved in this market. This has really become a quarterback-only award. The last non-quarterback to win the Heisman was Alabama wideout DeVonta Smith, who caught 117 passes for 1,857 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2020. Smith was also the best player on a Crimson Tide team that went on to win the College Football Playoff.
Realistically, it’s hard to envision a receiver putting up another year quite like that —at least at the Power Four level. The same also goes for anybody at the running back position. Colorado wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter is the first non-quarterback on the odds board heading into this season, but 23 quarterbacks are listed above him. That said, we’re going to primarily focus on the signal callers here, but I’ll include one position player for those looking for the ultimate dart throw.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Here are some of my favorite Heisman Trophy betting options, including a chalkier pick, a value pick, some dark horses and the non-quarterback.
BEST CHALK OPTION
QB Dillon Gabriel (+800), Oregon Ducks
By the end of the college football season, Gabriel is going to turn 24 years old. So, if you’ve been thinking that he’s been around forever, it’s because he has. It feels like ages ago that Gabriel threw for 3,653 yards with 29 touchdowns and only seven picks in his first season with UCF. That was back in 2019. And Gabriel was most recently throwing passes for Oklahoma. Last year, Gabriel threw for 3,660 yards, 30 touchdowns and only six interceptions for the Sooners. He also rushed for 373 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Many people liked Gabriel as a value play to win the Heisman Trophy last year. He was playing for an Oklahoma team that seemed like it had an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff. The Sooners ultimately went 10-2 in the regular season, which wasn’t quite good enough for them to achieve that. However, Gabriel undoubtedly did his part, as the lefty gunslinger was the leader of an Oklahoma squad that was 11th in the nation in EPA per play on offense. The Sooners were also seventh in the nation in Dropback EPA per play.
All in all, Gabriel’s play under center has been tremendous for most of his college career. That’s why it’s easy to be excited about him playing with the best supporting cast he has ever had. Gabriel wisely decided to transfer to Oregon after last season. The Ducks trail only Ohio State in the odds to win the Big Ten, and Oregon is also fourth on the odds board when it comes to winning the College Football Playoff. Dan Lanning has built a powerhouse in Eugene, and Gabriel is about to reap all the benefits.
The Ducks should have a top-five offensive line this year and there might not be a team in the nation with a better group of receivers. Tez Johnson is the best of the returning pass catchers, but there’s also help coming by way of internal development, the transfer portal and highly-regarded freshmen. Add all of that to the fact that Will Stein is one of the best offensive coordinators in the country and Gabriel should put up huge numbers for an elite football team. That’s a recipe for a Heisman-winning season.
BEST VALUE PLAY
QB Nico Iamaleava (18-1), Tennessee Volunteers
Iamaleava isn’t being priced as one of the true favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, but that’s only because we haven’t seen much of him. However, in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, we saw Iamaleava go 12 for 19 for 151 yards and one passing touchdown against Iowa, and he also added another 27 yards and three scores on the ground. That was a Hawkeyes defense that was 17th in the nation in EPA per play allowed and gave up fewer points per game (13.2) than all but three teams in college football. That said, this 6’6’’ dual-threat quarterback is ready to do big things in 2024.
Iamaleava was a high-profile recruit who chose Tennessee over the likes of Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, Oregon and USC. Absolutely everybody wanted to get their hands on him, but he ended up choosing to play in Josh Heupel’s high-powered offense. Just two years ago, we saw what a highly-talented quarterback can do in this system, as Hendon Hooker threw for 3,135 yards with 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 2022. He also rushed for 430 yards and five scores. Well, Iamaleava has a lot more in common with Hooker than Joe Milton III.
It just isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Iamaleava will use his big arm and lively legs to put up big numbers in his first year under center. Tennessee is just going to have to win some games in a very competitive SEC. But the Volunteers have a win total of 8.5 this season, and the Over is heavily juiced. If this is a nine-win team and Iamaleava lives up to the hype, it’s likely he’ll be in the conversation here.
DARK HORSES
QBs Miller Moss (40-1) & Jayden Maiava (50-1), USC Trojans
I did something similar with the Alabama quarterbacks last year. The Tide hadn’t yet decided on a starting quarterback, but I felt good about them producing a Heisman Trophy contender. So, I put a little something on all of them. And that ended up getting me a good price on Jalen Milroe, who had his chances of winning. Well, I feel the same way about Lincoln Riley and the Trojans this year. I’m not sure if it’ll be Moss or Maiava, but I don’t really care. The reality is that three quarterbacks have won the Heisman in the explosive Riley offense, and I just don’t see how you can rule out the possibility of it happening again.
Sure, the Trojans are playing in a competitive Big Ten conference this year, but there’s a ton of talent in place and plenty of reason for optimism. For starters, in each of Riley’s seven seasons as a head coach, his teams have had top-10 scoring offenses. And with the weapons he has in his offense —like the electric Zachariah Branch —this season, it’s hard to see that changing. But the defense should be a lot better this season, with D’Anton Lynn taking over on that side of the ball. Lynn is considered a defensive mastermind and should quickly fix things for USC. If he does, the Trojans should flirt with nine or 10 wins and make a run at one of the final spots in the College Football Playoff.
If it’s Moss that wins the job, the Trojans are starting a player that they have seen succeed in their system. Last year, he threw for 372 yards and six touchdowns in a DIRECTV Holiday Bowl win over Louisville. He can make every throw in the book and has comfortability after having spent the last two years with Riley. However, it’d probably be a little better if Maiava steals the job. His odds are a bit longer and he has a lot more upside as a dual-threat quarterback. Maiava was a star for UNLV last year and a lot of teams were interested in his services as a transfer portal option.
QB Cade Klubnik (50-1), Clemson Tigers
It wasn’t long ago that Dabo Swinney was comparing Klubnik to Deshaun Watson, who was a two-time Davey O’Brien Award and Manning Award winner and led the Tigers to a national championship. Klubnik was a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school, and many thought that his combination of passing accuracy and the ability to move the chains with his legs would make him a star at the college level. So far, the early returns have been a little disappointing. But Klubnik is still an impressive player and he should have a much better understanding of how to utilize his talent in his second full season under center.
If Clemson’s offensive line play is a little better than it was a year ago, Klubnik could surprise some people by working his way back into the Heisman mix. Many people pegged Klubnik as a dark horse to win the award heading into last season, but perhaps they were a year early. This will be Year 2 of Klubnik playing in Garrett Riley’s system, which promised a more modern-looking offense and under-delivered. Maybe with a better group of pass catchers, Riley will be able to open up the playbook and let Klubnik cook.
The Tigers are likely going to be in the mix to win the ACC, which certainly doesn’t hurt. Clemson gets Georgia in the opening week of the season, but every other game on the schedule is winnable —including a road game against Florida State on October 5th. Well, 10 or 11 wins and good individual numbers should make Klubnik a household name again. The Clemson brand doesn’t hurt either.
NON-QUARTERBACK
RB Donovan Edwards (100-1), Michigan
I have to reiterate that I think this award is going to a quarterback, so betting on a running back or receiver might be lighting your hard-earned money on fire. However, if forced to pick a skill position player, it’s hard to find a better option than Edwards. Jim Harbaugh might be gone, but Michigan is going to remain a run-first team under Sherrone Moore. That should mean a ton of touches for Edwards, who no longer has Blake Corum in front of him on the depth chart.
Edwards had a pretty disappointing 2023 season, but he reminded everybody what he is capable of by rushing for 104 yards and two scores on only six carries against Washington in the championship.
Edwards likely won’t be seeing less than double digits in carries very often this season, and he’ll be running behind an offensive line that should be very good. The Wolverines lost most of last year’s group up front, but they did a good job in hitting the portal. And I generally trust this program to be tough up front. That should mean some big games for Edwards, who is a home-run hitter out of the backfield.
With Michigan’s defense once again expected to be outstanding, it’s just hard to rule out the possibility of the defending champs making a run at the Big Ten and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. If that happens, somebody on offense will get some mainstream love. Well, this isn’t a team in which you’d expect that player to be the quarterback. So, Edwards could get credit for carrying the Michigan offense.
